Every four years, the International Organization of La Francophonie (OIF) celebrates Francophonie Day, March 20, by publishing a batch of new figures produced by the French Language Observatory. The most recent edition of its report, The French language in the worldwhich has just been published by Gallimard, reports 321 million French-speakers in the world, or 21 million more than four years ago.
It was after the Quebec summit in 2008 that La Francophonie decided that it needed to produce serious demographic data in order to better direct its actions. Until that date, French speakers were rather subscribed to fanciful figures: the statistics consisted of estimates made by embassy attachés without any particular method, and exactly nonsense came out of it.
In 2009, we both created the Observatory of the French language and asked the Demographic and Statistical Observatory of the Francophone Space (ODSEF), a research group from Laval University led by Professor Richard Marcoux, carry out a rigorous compilation based on data from national censuses and official surveys such as those of Eurostat. And it is with certainty that the Francophonie can now celebrate its successes and consider its weaknesses.
Full of French speakers
In terms of successes, the place of French in fifth place among languages in the world according to the number of speakers is confirmed (after English, Mandarin, Hindi and Spanish) – a speaker being a person capable of understand a news bulletin and hold a conversation in French. And the growth of 7% in four years, from 300 to 321 million, shows that the French do not live on their income and that their demography is generally healthy. Admittedly, the situation is not equal everywhere, but few places are experiencing setbacks.
If the number of French speakers is increasing in the world, it is mainly thanks to Africa, where 19 of the 21 million new speakers listed live. Thus, 51% of all French speakers are African. And the growth can be seen especially in sub-Saharan Africa, which has seen the number of Francophones on its territory increase by 15% in four years – this is twice as much as the increase observed in the international Francophonie taken as a whole.
Europe remains in a good position with 42% of French speakers: 136 million Europeans speak French. This means that outside the natural area in France, Belgium and Switzerland, 50 million Germans, Dutch, Irish, British, Italians and Spaniards speak French, not counting significant pockets in Romania, Austria, Sweden, Poland and elsewhere.
America has some beautiful pieces, with 19.2 million French speakers, or 6% of the world’s Francophonie. In the United States, the figure of 2.3 million speakers is certainly an underestimate since, as Richard Marcoux explained to me, the ODSEF has developed good calculation methods which allow it to make conservative estimates. , even very cautious, for countries that do not provide reliable data.
Two weaknesses to address
In terms of weaknesses, on the other hand, this new study first reveals a sudden decline, of 9.8%, in the teaching of French in Europe.
Overall, French ranks second in the world for the number of learners, at 144 million. Among them, 51 million are learning French as a foreign language – that’s three times more than for Spanish.
The learning of French as a foreign language is stable in North Africa, but the growth is 12.7% in sub-Saharan Africa/Indian Ocean, 16.3% in Asia and Oceania, and 31.7% in the American continent – thanks in particular to a big demand in Costa Rica and Chile, explain the authors. But what worries is the sudden drop in Europe.
From 2012 to 2018, Eurostat data, which is solid, showed that French held its place in education systems in Europe. This sudden drop has not yet resulted in a decrease in the number of speakers, which remains stable at 136 million people, but it will have consequences if the phenomenon is confirmed in future studies.
Overall, English is almost everywhere the first foreign language learned in Europe. Despite the competition from German, Spanish, Italian and Russian, French is maintained in European countries which require knowledge of two foreign languages to obtain the equivalent of the diploma of studies. collegiate. The shoe pinches in the many countries which do not apply this European directive.
At the unveiling of this new edition of The French language in the world, on Thursday March 17, the secretary general of the OIF, Louise Mushikiwabo, also promised to use the figures of the Observatory of the French language to put pressure on the member countries of the OIF which do not make great efforts to encourage the teaching of French. Two long-standing Member States, Bulgaria and Greece, are doing significantly worse than Romania and Armenia. And many observer countries, such as Poland or Hungary, could do more. “We have 19 member countries of the OIF which are also part of the European Union, she said, and we are going to insist that their education policy be consistent. »
The other important problem revealed by the study is the slowdown in growth in Africa. We are not talking about a decline or a loss of momentum, since it is all the same on this continent that we have seen the strongest increase over the past four years, but the once exponential rate of growth is tending to decrease.
For nearly 60 years, French in Africa has grown under the impetus of two powerful engines: demography and education. Indeed, following independence in 1960, most of the former French and Belgian colonies adopted French as the official language of administration or education. As a result of investments in education, Mali has seen its population quadruple between 1960 and now, but the number of Malians who can read and write French has increased 33 times. And so it is for almost every French-speaking country on the continent. .
However, for about 10 years, growth has become more linear, as education systems have reached their maximum in many countries. The proportion of French speakers in each country seems to have stabilized and now follows population growth.
This situation, which has been known for 10 years, explains why the OIF, but also the Agence universitaire de la Francophonie, pays more attention to education systems, from primary to university, throughout the African continent, in particular to ensure the recruitment and training of teachers, but also to guarantee the renewal of post-secondary programs.
The situation is not hopeless
For my part, I remain optimistic. Admittedly, these problems must be resolved or contained, but the French-speaking authorities are working on them and the studies of the Observatory of the French language make a powerful contribution to this by placing political leaders before the consequences of their decisions. But we must also insist on the fact that French enjoys several big advantages.
As indicated The French language in the world, French is becoming stronger in several African countries as it becomes necessary at work and as parents speak it more and more with their children at home. As Africa urbanizes, the population of urban areas in 15 African countries is now predominantly French-speaking: 90% in Congo, but also 89% in Tunisia, 87% in Cameroon, 86% in Gabon, 84% in Algeria and 82% in Morocco, with the Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic at 78% and Côte d’Ivoire not far behind at 73%. Even in Rwanda, which has been much debated since it chose English as its official language in 2003, 65% of city dwellers are French-speaking, which compares favorably with Senegal (57%).
In addition, the French-speaking economic zone is experiencing strong economic growth, the strongest on the continent in fact. Three French-speaking countries (Morocco, Mauritius and Côte d’Ivoire) have reached critical masses which allow them to invest in other French-speaking countries. In West Africa and Equatorial Africa, French-speaking countries have organized themselves into economic, monetary and legal zones which promote trade. Some English-speaking countries, notably Nigeria, have adopted policies for teaching French as a second language.
Put together, all these pieces point to the fact that French is far from being endangered and that the most beautiful chapters of its history undoubtedly remain to be written.
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